When the Dust Settles- Watches After Covid-19
History shows us that crises tend to have deep spiritual implications – not just for individuals, but for whole industries and nations. Zooming in on the watch industry, we know that the quartz crisis wasn’t merely defined by shifts in supply and demand. It was also an awakening, or forced evolution, that pushed the Swiss watchmaking industry up in value, to luxury, in order to survive. During that crisis, rapidly increasing global competition for "entry-level watches" acted as gasoline to the fires of change.
If it's fair to say that crises can accelerate change, then what should we expect from the watch industry in the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic?
(1) Social media takes the throne
By hell or high water, many of us always knew that the watch industry would have to embrace social media. Now there are a few exceptions – brands like MB&F that invest heavily in social media and connect well with audiences online. But most brands thus far have given social media the back seat, opting instead to focus on traditional channels, such as retail, VIP events, and conference experiences. That traditional approach to communicating and cultivating relationships has obvious pitfalls when human-to-human contact of all kinds is banned by shelter-in-place orders.
For the time being, and likely into the next quarter, social media is the only channel for brands and dealers to communicate with new and old customers.
(2) The long awaited shift in retail
If there was a rift between how brands connect with customers (offline vs. online), there's probably no greater tension in the industry than retail vs. e-commerce sales. Some brands do it already, but most do not. It's still wholly unclear how many will manage both direct-to-consumer and authorized dealers at the same time. Like social media adoption, it's been a "work in progress" for at least a decade. Yet, arguably one of the most conservative brands in the industry, Patek Philippe, was one of the first to allow authorized dealers to sell online during the pandemic. Here we are: tough times call for rapid change.
It's unclear whether this will be a slippery slope – e-commerce that's here to stay – or whether these are exclusive tactics deployed in unusual circumstances. One way or the other, like the shift to social media, everyone tacitly knows that it's in store for the future. And now it’s on the brands.
Though independent brands might have less of a financial cushion than the big houses and conglomerates, their greatest hope of coming out of these tough times on a forward foot hinges on increasing the volume of quality social media content. Fortunately for independents, they generally have the ability to change and adapt faster than other bigger players in the industry.
There is a way to look at this pandemic and realize, it very directly affects and accelerates resolutions to longstanding tensions in the watch industry – between social media vs. traditional events and retail experiences, and between traditional retail vs. online sales.
With these words, I don't want any readers to think crises are merely opportunities for change and improvement - it’s out of touch and history shows that. Though the quartz crisis did lead the Swiss watchmaking industry down the successful path of luxury, many companies did fail and it took nearly 20 years for employment to return to the same levels. If the near-term is going to be rough, on society and industry, then we can all hope that the long-term effects of this pandemic are positive – better content and experience on social media and better online sales experiences.
About the Author
Mike is a horology enthusiast and collector of independent watches. He is the publisher and editor of The Open Caseback, a blog and Instagram page for watch collectors to engage and discuss unconventional topics in the watch industry.