The watch market found itself in a precarious position in recent months. Always a reflection of the broader global economy, we haven’t seen a comparable level of chaos since the early portion of the pandemic. Of course, a major component of this is the recent introduction of tariffs by the US government – the markets have been a rollercoaster in the last 3 months and there remains much uncertainty ahead.
Today, we’re diving into the thick of things – the latest auction season in Geneva, the tariffs, their impact on the watch industry, and what to possibly expect moving forward.
Notes on the Geneva auction swing
Leading up to the recent auctions in Hong Kong and Geneva, no one could give a good guess of how things would perform given the volatility in the markets. When all the dust settled, Paul Boutros’ (Head of Watches, Americas at Phillips) comment on the auction market from years ago remains true: “there’s always a strong market for the best stuff.”
For Example:
- MB&F’s most coveted and rarer timepieces performed well, the Legacy Machine Perpetual EVO Green sold for near $175,000 while older first generation Legacy Machine 1 in rose gold was had at a lower than expected price.
- There’s still demand in the niche spaces of the market with the $156,000 all in price for a MB&F HM6.
- F.P. Journe continues to defy market fluctuations with a strong showing across the board, perhaps as the only brand to do so across product lines in the current market.
- Watchmakers such as Kari Voutilainen, Haldimann and Krayon also well exceeded their estimates
- Certain early Daniel Roth models like the Tourbillon C187 tourbillon saw a big jump as they are trending in collectibility and demand among key dealers and collectors.
Generally though, the Geneva and Hong Kong auction swing sat somewhere in between extremes, neither catastrophic and a sign of imminent collapse, nor strong and a sign of continued market growth. We’re in a holding pattern driven by relatively high levels of economic uncertainty surrounding the US tariff policy and its impact on the global markets.
One very important factor to consider in the Spring Geneva and Hong Kong auctions is that US market participation was significantly lower than usual due to the current tariffs as well as the significantly weaker US dollar. One cannot overemphasize the importance of taking the number one market for luxury watches virtually offline for a major auction season. The NYC auction swing, beginning this week, will be a major indicator of the overall health of the watch market with full US and global participation.
Let’s dig into the tariffs and their significance for the US watch market.
Tariffs, big brands, indies, and what’s ahead
Before we dive in, these are our cursory notes on tariffs and their impact on the US watch market. This is all taken from our perspective as importers of fine indie timepieces, predominantly from (but not exclusive to) Switzerland.
Before the 90-day pause on the new tariff policy, imports from Switzerland were hit with a 31% on top of any and all existing duties. This is paid when the goods are imported before they clear customs and enter the US economy. The quick math is: any $100,000 watch imported from Switzerland, the importer pays $31,000 for the timepiece to clear customs.
Now, big brands will be able to shift their cost structures around, or work with big suppliers to eat some of the tariff as a cost. Rolex raised prices significantly a few times since 2020 and have only minimally adjusted prices so far in light of the new tariffs. This is generally what we expect moving forward from the world’s largest luxury watch brands. Even with relatively high tariffs, these businesses have a lot more resources to absorb chaotic trade conditions and distribute costs across a larger network.
Independent watchmaking brands on the other hand, do not have the finances or distribution network to easily absorb the tariff as a cost. We anticipate the tariffs will be passed onto the final consumer for many (if not, all) indie watches imported into the US.
A few high-level notes here:
- The 90-day pause on tariffs is not particularly great for independent watchmakers. The delivery time on many indie timepieces is more than 90 days. In effect, the pause primarily causes uncertainty for collectors (as well as us, retailers), leaving everyone unsure if the tariff required upon delivery is 10% or 31% or some other number in the future.
- The USD-CHF exchange rate has not performed well for Americans in the last few months, putting things nicely. On top of tariffs, Swiss watches are roughly 10-15% more expensive already by the shift in the exchange rate.
None of this points to a doom-and-gloom situation though. The stock market recovery has created cautious optimism for many, and the dip in sales activity in the watch market is slowly bouncing back. Of course, there remains massive questions about the near- and long-term future. There have been many changes to the tariff policy inside of the 90-day pause, and we’re hoping that the next month, July 2025, the final tariff numbers come into effect without continuous adjustments. For independent watchmaking, stable economic policies will prove to be the most important for the health of the industry, providing collectors and retailers with the clear calculations to understand import costs and final prices.
Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more commentary after we see how the NYC auction swing performs in early to mid-July.
Editor’s note after NY auction swing
Now that the New York auction swing has come to a close the previous week (June 7-8 2025), we can add a blurb here. First off, full participation from the US market did show its impact on hammer prices. Phillips hit $25m in sales, and we saw new records set for a few Journe timepieces at auction (mentioned above as extremely hot right now). Especially with the general financial market recovery and no thought to tariffs with stateside auctions, collectors appear to be very keen to continue to buy, especially the most exceptional indies.
One thing to note for those more interested in independent watchmaking, the Harry Winston x F.P. Journe Opus One set a new record for the series at ~$850k. One of the seminal projects in modern independent watchmaking, this specific timepiece was spearheaded by Max Büsser before he left Harry Winston to launch MB&F some years afterwards. The Opus Series was one of the more important projects to catapult modern indie watchmaking into the spotlight and it’s fantastic to see such a successful auction result for a historically important timepiece.
Over the coming few months, we will see where US tariff policy (hopefully!) settles. The expiration of the tariff pause is roughly three weeks away, scheduled to end on July 9 2025. More than anything else, the future of the watch market will require stable, concrete economic policy so that every layer of the industry can adjust and operate with certainty.